@Article{CasagrandeNoSoMaToCaMe:2016:DeSiFu,
author = "Casagrande, Fernanda and Nobre, Paulo and Souza, Ronaldo Buss de
and Marquez, Andr{\'e} Lanfer and Tourigny, Etienne and
Capistrano, Vinicius Buscioli and Mello, Raquel Leite",
affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto
Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de
Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas
Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais
(INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and
{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
title = "Arctic sea ice: decadal simulations and future scenarios using
BESM-OA",
journal = "Atmospheric and Climate Sciences",
year = "2016",
volume = "6",
pages = "351--366",
keywords = "Arctic Sea Ice, Climate Models, Brazilian Earth System Model.",
abstract = "Important international reports and a significant number of
scientific publications have reported on the abrupt decline of
Arctic sea ice and its impact on the Global Climate System. In
this paper, we evaluated the ability of the newly implemented
Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM-OA) to represent Arctic sea ice
and sensitivity to CO2 forcing, using decadal simulations
(1980-2012) and future scenarios (2006-2100). We validated our
results with satellite observations and compared them to Coupled
Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) for the same
numerical experiment. BESM results for the seasonal cycle are
consistent with CMIP5 models and observations. However, almost all
models tend to overestimate sea ice extent in March compared to
observations. The correct evaluation of minimum record of sea ice,
in terms of time, spatial and area remains a limitation in Coupled
Global Climate Models. Looking to spatial patterns, we found a
systematic model error in September sea ice cover between the
Beaufort Sea and East Siberia for most models. Future scenarios
show a decrease in sea ice extent in response to an increase in
radiative forcing for all models. From the year 2045 onwards, all
models show a dramatic shrinking in sea ice and ice free
conditions at the end of the melting season. The projected future
sea ice loss is explained by the combined effects of the amplified
warming in northern hemisphere high latitudes and feedbacks
processes.",
doi = "10.4236/acs.2016.62029",
url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/acs.2016.62029",
issn = "2160-0414",
language = "en",
targetfile = "casagrande_arctic.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "27 abr. 2024"
}